Gold started Monday with a gap-up and then traded near the day’s low at $4,076.10, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington with Iran on the agenda. Oil prices dropped amid the pause in Middle East hostilities, while sliding Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar supported the metal at the open. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Gold futures opened at $4,097.15, tested a high of $4,118.75 and then fell back to $4,076.10 on Monday. Sliding Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar supported the gap-up, as investors gauged inflation expectations after oil prices dropped amid the pause in Middle East hostilities.
Netanyahu’s Washington trip puts the pause in question
President Donald Trump halted the bombing campaign late on Friday, after 13 straight nights of US strikes on Iranian targets, with the conflict reaching its 150th day on Monday. Iran also refrained from launching retaliatory attacks over the weekend against neighbouring countries hosting US military bases.
That pause rekindled hopes for diplomatic efforts to secure a lasting ceasefire. But Netanyahu said Iran would be a key issue “on the agenda” with Trump as he boarded a plane to Washington, DC. The analysis argues the pause could be disrupted as soon as tomorrow, since Netanyahu has advocated a renewed offensive on Tehran and has voiced scepticism about Iranian officials’ intentions behind nuclear-related negotiations.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which crawled to a stop before opening for a few short weeks, is back to a trickle, with a second choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden now threatened.
Fed meeting and the June precedent
The US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, though CME FedWatch still shows a one-in-three chance of a borrowing cost hike. Traders will scrutinize Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks for clues on the timing of future rate cuts and policymakers’ assessment of inflation risks. Gold yields nothing, so it tends to underperform when rates are elevated.
Therefore the June episode matters. The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 — also referred to as the Islamabad Memorandum — establishing a 60-day temporary ceasefire and a framework to negotiate an end to the conflict. It failed shortly afterwards, and gold slid to test lows at $3,957 on June 30, 2026.
On the daily chart, gold futures have formed a bearish hammer, which the analysis reads as signalling a slide on Tuesday if Netanyahu shatters hopes on the peace talks. The hourly chart points to weakness that could grow if the contract breaks below key support at the 200 EMA of $4,072.
Source: Investing.com
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