The 25 largest gold miners in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) reported their second-best quarter on record in Q2'26, even as gold itself suffered its worst quarter since Q2'13. Near-record gold prices combined with a smaller-than-usual stock drawdown to leave the sector's valuations at their lowest levels in at least a decade.
The GDX top 25 — the miners that make up 79.9% of the ETF's weighting — just posted their second-best quarterly results in 41 quarters of tracked history. That came despite a rough stretch for their underlying metal.
Gold plunged 14.1% in Q2'26. That was the heart of a 26.3% drawdown running from an extreme peak in late January to mid-July. Major gold miners typically amplify gold's moves by 2x to 3x, so that decline should have hit GDX hard. Instead, the ETF fell just 17.8% in the quarter, only 1.3x downside leverage. Its total drawdown from late February to mid-July reached 38.9%, 1.5x gold's parallel decline rather than the usual 2.5x.
Output falls to a 41-quarter low
The GDX top 25's combined production fell 10.4% year-over-year to 6,722k ounces in Q2, the lowest total in the 41 quarters this dataset covers. Two South African supermajors, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold, had not yet filed their results at the time of reporting, which understates the true figure. The top four producers — Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Barrick, and AngloGold — mined a combined 3,689k ounces, 55% of the group's total, still down 6.5% from a year earlier. The pattern is specific to the majors: the World Gold Council reported that global mined gold supply actually grew 1.9% year-over-year to 31,044k ounces in Q2.
Costs hit records, but so do profits
Average cash costs across the GDX top 25 surged 12.3% year-over-year to a record $1,333 per ounce. All-in sustaining costs climbed to a record $1,788 per ounce, up 25.6% year-over-year. Yet gold averaged $4,512 in Q2, up 37.3% year-over-year. That left implied unit profits of $2,724 per ounce, the second-best on record after Q1'26's $3,129. That marks a twelve-quarter streak of profit growth for the group.
Valuations sink despite record earnings
Group revenue rose 50.0% year-over-year to $35,982m, narrowly the third-highest on record. Net profit jumped 62.2% year-over-year to $12,301m. Cash treasuries climbed to a record $41,297m, up 72.7% year-over-year. Despite that earnings growth, the group's average trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio fell to 16.5x, its lowest level in at least 41 quarters.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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