Gold Opens Higher as U.S.-Iran Conflict Lifts Oil and Revives Fed Rate Bets

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Gold Opens Higher as U.S.-Iran Conflict Lifts Oil and Revives Fed Rate Bets
PrimeXBT Editorial Team
Reviewed by PrimeXBT

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Gold broke a week of lower opens on Friday, with August futures opening at $4,135.40 an ounce, up 1.2% from Thursday. Renewed U.S.–Iran conflict pushed oil higher and returned inflation to the front of Federal Reserve discussions.

Gold opened higher on Friday, July 10, 2026, snapping a stretch of lower opens earlier in the week. August futures opened at $4,135.40 per troy ounce, 1.2% above Thursday's opening price. The metal then eased back to $4,115.10 by 8:00 a.m. ET.

The higher open reversed a pattern of falling opens all week. Even so, Friday's opening price sat 1.2% below where gold began the week.

Iran conflict pushes oil and inflation back into focus

Gold slid through most of the week as the U.S. and Iran reengaged in military conflict, lifting oil and putting a permanent peace deal with Iran in real jeopardy. Oil prices are up 7.1% over the last five days, pushing rising inflation back to the front of Federal Reserve discussions.

Those renewed inflation worries have not yet convinced traders of a near-term move. Markets price just a 25.1% chance the Fed raises rates after its two-day meeting at the end of July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. That figure climbs to nearly 50% after the September meeting.

Longer-term gains still hold

Across longer windows, gold's record stays mixed but mostly positive. Prices are up 1.7% from a week ago and down 1.5% from a month ago. Over the past year, gold has gained 24.4%.

That yearly figure has cooled sharply from earlier in 2026. On January 29, gold's one-year gain stood at 95.6%.

How much gold to hold

Views on how much gold belongs in a portfolio remain far apart among the experts the report surveyed. Robert R. Johnson of Creighton University recommends a 0% allocation, arguing according to Yahoo Finance that "the lost long-term return is certainly not a prudent one". At the other end, Vince Stanzione of First Information suggests a 20% allocation for wealth protection, citing gold's ability to keep pace with inflation.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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