Gold-mining countries are increasingly keeping their own output instead of selling it abroad, taxing exports, building refineries and routing production into central-bank reserves. The shift adds a supply-side prop to a bull market that central-bank buying already dominates, even as higher interest rates pull gold back from its highs.
Laos, Indonesia and China are now taxing, refining or restricting their own gold exports instead of shipping mined supply to Western refiners.
Producers tax and refine instead of export
Laos produced roughly 12 tons of mined gold in 2025, the sixth-largest output in Asia, and estimates its reserves at 500 to 1,000 tons. In 2024 its government set up the Lao Bullion Bank to refine gold domestically and grow the share of gold in the country's central bank reserves. Indonesia, the world's 10th-largest producer at more than 100 tons a year, has announced an export tax of up to 15% effective 2026 because domestic investment demand cannot be met by supply.
China, the world's largest producer at a little over 380 tons a year, also restricts outbound flows. According to market analyst Jeff Toshima: "As a rule, taking gold out of the country is restricted."
China's reserves and imports keep climbing
The People's Bank of China added 20 tons in August, its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases, the longest streak since comparable data began in December 1999. Its reserves are up 20% since 2022 and 122% since 2015, to 2,345 tonnes, while its Treasury holdings are down 41% since 2020. Meanwhile, the dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to 57% in 2025, more than 5 points below 2022. Eighty-four percent of reserve managers surveyed expect gold to take a bigger share of reserves going forward.
Goldman: central banks drive nearly all the forecast gain
Goldman estimates central-bank gold buying running near 91 tonnes a month, more than five times the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. It keeps a $5,400-per-ounce forecast for end-2027, with central-bank diversification contributing nearly all of that expected gain, though it cut its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650 an ounce from $4,900.
Rate hikes keep a lid on the rally for now
Despite the structural buying, gold hit a record above $5,500 in January, neared $4,700 in late August, and stood at $4,110 on Sept 28, down 12% from that late-summer peak. The pullback followed the Federal Reserve's September rate increase, its first in more than three years, with at least one more hike expected before year-end. ANZ's Geullim Yum describes gold as an asset insulated from the political and fiscal policies of any single country.
Source: Oilprice.com
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