Gold pulled back to the $4,300 support zone after Trump said a US-Iran deal would come only after the November elections, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. Traders now turn to the Flash US PMIs, with a weaker print seen as a potential boost for the metal, while a separate technical read shows gold still confined to a 5-week triangle.
Trump's Iran remarks reverse gold's rally
Gold rallied after reports strengthened expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East, a move that pushed oil prices to new lows and eased inflation and rate-hike concerns. But Trump then poured cold water on those expectations, repeating that the US would make a deal with Iran only after the November elections. Treasury yields and the dollar rose on his remarks, weighing on gold.
The focus stays on US-Iran developments, since oil prices remain the main driver of inflation and interest-rate expectations. Economic data matters too, given how stretched current market pricing has become. Therefore, even a modest downside surprise in the data could trigger a significant reversal and reduce expectations for aggressive rate hikes, giving gold an extra lift. The first test comes with today's Flash US PMIs, followed by the Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow.
Price holds the $4,300 line on the daily chart
On the daily chart, gold has pulled back to the key support zone around the 4,300 level. Buyers are expected to step in there, defining risk below the zone to position for a rally toward 4,510, while sellers want a break lower to open the door to 3,885 next. On the 4-hour chart, a minor downward trendline defines the pullback into support — a bounce into the trendline would draw sellers looking for a break below support, while a break higher would push buyers toward the same 4,510 target.
Triangle pattern still caps the upside
A separate technical read from Investing.com shows gold stuck in a 5-week triangle, testing resistance in the 4360/4370 zone, an area also reinforced by the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. Yesterday's break below 4335 triggered a slide to minor support at 4302/4297, with the day's low at 4292 before the metal rallied back to overnight resistance near 4365/4375. A sustained break above 4380 would mark a buy signal, initially targeting the 4410/4415 area.
Sources: Investinglive, Investing.com
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