Gold is trading around $4,400 an ounce, extending its August rally as a softer dollar, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations and renewed Middle East tensions draw investors back into bullion. The metal has also broken above its 17 June peak, a technical signal that the summer consolidation may be over.
Gold is trading around $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday, extending a rally built on a weaker dollar, shifting Fed rate expectations and renewed geopolitical risk.
Bullion has gained around 9% so far in August. That builds on a weekly advance of more than 7% last week, its strongest weekly performance since January. The move pushed gold back above $4,400 after it spent July and early August confined to a $3,942-to-$4,202 range.
Weaker rate expectations and a softer dollar
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report has reduced expectations of further Fed tightening, encouraging investors back into gold, which pays no interest and grows more attractive when rates and yields are expected to fall. The shift has also weighed on the dollar; because gold is priced in the US currency, a softer greenback makes bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.
Markets are now watching US inflation data for further signals. A stronger reading could push yields and the dollar higher and limit gold's advance, while contained price pressure would reinforce expectations of easier policy.
Middle East tensions add safe-haven demand
The conflict involving Iran and continuing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping investors alert to further disruption in energy markets, with Brent crude trading around $91.50 a barrel and US crude near $83. Higher oil prices can add to inflationary pressure, which would normally weigh on gold, but the safe-haven effect currently appears to be winning out.
Renewed ETF inflows are also supporting the rally, suggesting demand extends beyond short-term futures positioning. Central-bank buying remains a longer-term pillar of the market, though estimates for first-quarter 2026 purchases were later revised sharply lower.
Chart breaks out of its summer range
The rally carries technical significance: spot gold closed above its 17 June peak of $4,382.61 on Monday and looked set to do so again Wednesday, pointing to a medium-term bottom and an end to the June-to-August sideways range. Immediate resistance sits at $4,480.30, with the 200-day moving average at $4,499.30. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,577.13 is next in view. A break higher could open the way toward the May peak near $4,772.71-to-$4,773.57.
Support lies between the 23.6% retracement at $4,335.14 and the late-December 2025 low of $4,274.02. The main risk to the rally would be stronger-than-expected US inflation alongside higher yields and a firmer dollar, while any easing of Middle East tensions could reduce gold's safe-haven premium.
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