Gold recovered above $4,100 on Thursday, July 9, 2026, as a softer dollar lifted the metal even while renewed U.S.-Iran airstrikes kept traders wary of higher inflation. August futures opened at $4,087.60 and climbed to $4,110.60 by mid-morning, but a stronger case for elevated interest rates is capping the upside.
Gold moved higher on Thursday after a weaker dollar drew buyers back to the metal, trading at $4,110.60 as of 7:44 a.m. ET after August futures opened at $4,087.60 per troy ounce. That open was up 0.1% from Wednesday's close, yet prices have opened lower each day this week.
Middle East conflict keeps traders wary
The soft open tracks the return of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. For the second straight day both countries exchanged airstrikes, all but eliminating the ceasefire that once held and slowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz again. The renewed conflict pushed oil prices back up, fueling inflation concerns that could keep the Fed's rates elevated for longer.
Wednesday's fresh U.S. strikes triggered retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, sharpening regional worries. President Donald Trump said Iran had reached out seeking a deal, which helped ease broader escalation fears.
Rate-hike odds cap the upside
Monetary policy is working against gold, which pays no yield. Federal Reserve minutes showed rising inflation concerns among policymakers, with several officials seeing a case for a rate increase even after holding rates last month. Markets now price a 63% probability of a September rate hike.
Even so, gold opened 24.3% higher than a year ago, though it traded 5.7% below where it stood a month earlier. HSBC still trimmed its forecasts, cutting its 2026 average projection to $4,560 from $4,864 and its 2027 estimate to $4,925 from $5,000.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, TradingView
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