Gold rebounded on Thursday as investors returned to safe-haven buying after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, ending a three-session slide. A steadier dollar and divided Fed minutes framed the move, while analysts warned that renewed rate-hike bets could cap any recovery.
Gold climbed on Thursday as renewed military action between the United States and Iran sent investors back into safe-haven assets, snapping a run of losses. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,104.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures also gained 0.7% to $4,112.75 by 05:47 ET.
Fed minutes split the outlook
The rebound followed Federal Reserve meeting minutes that showed policymakers divided over where rates go next. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted officials saw reasons to consider another rate increase in June while also weighing the chance of easing later this year.
Lower rates generally help gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. The minutes also flagged concern that inflation remains above target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated last week that "bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% objective remains a priority."
Rate-hike bets cap the rally
The move higher looks fragile. FXEmpire reported spot gold up 0.76% at $4,108.18 as the dollar eased to about 100.98 on the Dollar Index, though Treasury yields told a harsher story. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.57% and the 30-year crossed 5%, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold.
Those yields reflect hardening rate expectations. CME FedWatch rose to 63% odds of a September rate increase, a bet that fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets reinforced by driving crude higher earlier this week.
Geopolitics keeps gold bid
The safe-haven demand traces to escalation in the Gulf. Washington launched additional strikes after President Trump said the ceasefire with Tehran was "over," citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes on what it called U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Traders now look to next week's U.S. inflation data. HSBC has cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,560 from $4,864 but still sees deficit spending and sovereign debt loads keeping a floor under prices.
Sources: Yahoo Finance UK, FXEmpire
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
