Gold futures recovered from Wednesday's low of 4,032.5 and closed the week near 4,129, but they remain capped below resistance at 4,146. A pivotal macro week — June CPI and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony — will likely decide the next move.
Gold has clawed back from its midweek low but cannot yet clear the level that stands between it and a fresh push higher. The market recovered from Wednesday's low of 4,032.5, and futures closed the week around 4,129, holding above the VC PMI Daily Mean Price of 4,113 while staying below the Daily Sell 1 resistance at 4,146.
The range that decides the next leg
Analyst Patrick MontesDeOca reads the market as neutral-to-bullish while it trades above both the Daily and Weekly Mean Prices. A sustained close above 4,146 would open a move toward 4,177, followed by the Weekly Sell 2 target at 4,184.
The downside map is just as specific. Should prices retrace, the preferred approach remains buying corrections into 4,082 and 4,049, where historical probabilities favor mean reversion exceeding 90%. A decline below 4,049 would shift attention toward the Weekly Buy 1 level at 4,056 and ultimately 3,998, the extreme statistical support zone. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to flatten near the zero line, suggesting downside momentum is fading and a volatility expansion is likely.
A macro-heavy week ahead
The technical picture now runs into a wall of data. Gold prices dipped below $4,100 early Monday as Middle East tensions returned, with oil rising on fresh U.S. attacks targeting Iran and Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices reignited inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep policy tight.
Because of that, traders are now waiting on the US CPI data and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony for clues on inflation and rates. June CPI is due Tuesday, July 14, and consensus looks for headline CPI to fall 0.1% month over month, taking the annual rate to roughly 3.9%, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% and hold near 2.9%. That would reverse May, when CPI rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year earlier.
Should oil, the dollar and Treasury yields stay strong, gold could continue to decline. Until then, the metal holds above the 4,049 support that has anchored its recovery.
Sources: Investing.com, FXEmpire, Investing.com
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