Gold has climbed back toward $4,200 an ounce after posting its sharpest quarterly loss in 13 years, as weaker US jobs data prompts traders to scale back bets on further Federal Reserve tightening. Analysts read the bounce as corrective, and positioning data still points to a cautious market.
Gold rose $53 to $4,147 an ounce in quiet US holiday trading, heading for its first weekly gain in five weeks. The move topped out at $4,194 during an Asian session burst before chopping sideways.
The rebound follows a stretch of steep losses. Gold fell by 14% in the second quarter, marking its sharpest quarterly decline in 13 years. Bullion had also dropped roughly 24% from January's record highs as higher real interest rates and a stronger dollar sapped investor demand.
Softer jobs data cools rate-hike bets
The turn came from the labour market. A weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls number drove broad dollar weakness and a jump in gold. A run of stronger jobs reports had earlier helped price out Fed rate cuts and lift the dollar, the pressure that had dragged the metal lower.
Commerzbank's Carsten Fritsch argued the price rise looks corrective after a fall steeper than interest rate expectations alone could explain. He noted that dips below $4,000 have proved short-lived, suggesting the market may be bottoming out.
Positioning still points to caution
Even so, sentiment has not fully recovered. For the first time since 2016, gold's put/call skew has turned positive, signalling stronger demand for downside protection than for upside exposure.
Goldman Sachs commodities executive Samantha Dart called the shift a significant change in positioning while keeping her longer-term view. According to Yahoo Finance: "Gold is not done," she wrote in a 29 June note, pointing to emerging-market central bank diversification behind her $4,900 end-2026 forecast. For now, analysts see gold needing to retake higher levels before any real upside momentum builds.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, FXStreet, investingLive
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