Gold has fallen roughly 27% from its January record to $4,078 an ounce, and analysts now debate where the bear market bottoms. TD Securities sees a floor near $3,900 in the second half of 2026, while year-end forecasts range from $4,360 to $6,000.
Gold has dropped approximately 27% to $4,078 an ounce since reaching a record, and analysts are now trying to call the bottom. The metal hit an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce on Jan. 28, having doubled over the preceding 12 months.
Where analysts see the floor
Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Research at TD Securities, projects gold will bottom around $3,900 per ounce during the second half of 2026. He tied the risk to an oversold crude market that could rebound, potentially pushing Brent into the $90–110 per barrel range and reinforcing a restrictive policy bias that raises the cost of holding gold.
Some analysts see a lower floor. Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading predicted gold will bottom between $3,600 and $3,700 per ounce.
Why the metal fell as inflation rose
Inflation has surged since the Iran War began, yet gold prices have collapsed. Higher inflation expectations fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, making Treasury bonds more attractive than non-yielding gold.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh aims to tighten monetary policy and shrink the money supply to strengthen the dollar. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar dampens overseas demand.
Diverging year-end forecasts
Forecasts for year-end diverge sharply. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation cut its target to $4,360 from $5,100, while Goldman Sachs holds $4,900 and J.P. Morgan sees $6,000.
Melek anticipates gold will rebound in late 2026 and recover above $5,300 by 2027. Longer term, as federal borrowing continues, the dollar will depreciate, supporting higher gold prices despite short-term swings.
Source: AOL.com
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