Gold edged lower and headed for a weekly decline as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first major address at the Jackson Hole symposium. A fresh inflation reading has lifted the odds of a rate hike, pressuring the metal even as it holds a double-digit August gain.
Gold prices edged lower on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline, as investors awaited closely watched remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. The metal has struggled to extend its recent rally as investors positioned cautiously ahead of Warsh's speech, scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Friday.
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut looms
His first major address as Fed chair at Jackson Hole is being closely watched for signals on inflation and the central bank's approach to interest rates. Higher rates tend to weigh on gold because the non-yielding asset becomes less attractive next to interest-bearing investments.
Inflation data raises hike odds
Recent data have complicated the outlook for monetary easing. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.7% in the year through July, adding to bets the central bank could hike rates this year. Markets are pricing a 34% chance of a rate hike in September and a 74% probability of a hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold has recently benefited from lower yields and a softer dollar, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal and make it cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Despite Friday's pullback, the broader backdrop remains supportive for bullion — gold has gained more than 13% in August.
Technical levels in focus
On the monthly chart, gold futures opened the month at $4,135.20, tested a high of $4,755 and a low of $4,074, and now trade at $4,627. The weekly chart tells a similar story: futures opened at $4,673.40 and tested a high of $4,755 and a low of $4,617.76, forming a bearish hammer as they test the double top last seen in the second week of May 2026.
Daily action shows futures trading at $4,634, just below resistance at $4,649.89, holding above immediate support at the 9 EMA near $4,606. A breakdown there could open the way toward the next support at the 20 EMA near $4,492, with the FOMC meeting on September 16, 2026 looming as the next major catalyst.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
