Gold futures traded at $4,400.62 on Wednesday, struggling to hold the $4,397.79 resistance level as US Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs and oil prices climbed amid the Iran standoff. A break below the 200-day EMA near $4,377.22 could open the door to the 100-day EMA at $4,345.91.
Gold tests key resistance
Gold futures opened Wednesday at $4,395.85, touched a high of $4,415.51 and a low of $4,378.15, before settling at $4,400.62. The metal is trying to hold the $4,397.79 resistance, and most exponential moving averages sit below the 200 EMA, forming a bearish crossover on the daily chart.
A breakdown through that level could push futures toward the 200 EMA at $4,377.22, with the 100 EMA at $4,345.91 the next support beneath it. The setup follows a recent recovery that stalled as rising bond yields and firmer oil prices renewed pressure on the metal.
Yields and oil add pressure
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries reached its highest level in almost two decades on Tuesday, while 10-year yields stayed close to their highest since early 2025. Higher yields hurt gold because bonds become more attractive when they offer better returns, raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion that pays no interest.
Oil prices have also risen as the Middle East standoff continues. Higher energy costs can feed directly into inflation, which could make the Federal Reserve more reluctant to cut rates or keep them elevated for longer. The US diesel crack spread surged above $100 a barrel for the first time, a measure of refining profitability that leaves producers and manufacturers weighing whether to absorb the hit or pass it to consumers.
Fed minutes and Jackson Hole in focus
Even so, the latest selling followed a run in which gold climbed back above the $4,000-an-ounce threshold on renewed investor demand and stronger central-bank buying, particularly from China. Investors are now watching the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, due later Wednesday, for clues on how policymakers assessed inflation and the path for interest rates.
Attention then shifts to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium next week. The Fed also reported that July growth in US industrial production cooled to 0.2%, undershooting expectations partly on weaker output of consumer goods.
Source: Investing.com
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