Iran and Oman are preparing to issue a joint statement on a new passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker. No formal agreement has been confirmed yet, and prediction markets are split on how soon one will arrive.
Iran and Oman are set to release a joint statement establishing a new passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian lawmaker Abbas Moghtadaei said. The strait plays a central role in global energy shipping, and a new route could change how the two countries manage security and traffic through the chokepoint. Market participants appear to read the development as a sign of progress toward a formal agreement, though none has been confirmed yet.
Prediction markets, however, appear to be pulling back on how soon a deal will land. The probability of a formal agreement by August 31 has slipped to 21.5%, down from 29% a day earlier. But the longer-dated view tells a different story: markets currently put the odds of an agreement by September 30 at 62%, reflecting more confidence in a later resolution than an immediate one.
Foreign ministry officials from both countries will play a significant role in shaping the outcome. Any geopolitical development or incident in the strait could still shift those odds either way. The joint statement itself has not yet been released.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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