Gold touched $4,449 in Asian trading before slipping back to $4,375, unable to clear its 100-day moving average near $4,387. A benign US CPI report for July failed to give the metal the extra push it needed, leaving buyers to lean on US-Iran headlines and dollar moves for the next catalyst.
CPI comes in as expected, gold shrugs
The US CPI report for July settled within expectations, with no major surprises in the numbers. That left gold traders without the jolt they were hoping for, and the market settled back into its prior pattern rather than breaking out.
For gold, US-Iran developments remain the bigger driver. The metal's technical break above $4,200 in early August delivered some upside momentum, but without a breakthrough in the Middle East, price is struggling to clear the next technical hurdle this week.
100-day moving average caps the advance
$4,387 marks the key level gold buyers are testing, the 100-day moving average on the daily chart. Bids picked up again in Asia, and the high touched $4,449 before falling back to $4,375.
The Asian buying is a positive sign, but it needs backing from more constructive progress in the US-Iran conflict. Bond yields staying on the high side may ultimately cap gold's advance heading into the second half of August.
What would it take to break higher
Gold buyers need a break above the 100-day moving average to open a run at the 200-day moving average, seen at $4,501. That requires softer US data to keep a more dovish Fed in play, and/or better US-Iran developments, and/or a softer dollar on potential intervention threat from Tokyo and Washington.
Short of those catalysts, the near-term chart shows buying momentum running out of steam. A break back below the 100-hour moving average could signal further downside toward $4,325, with room for a deeper retreat given the lack of other buying catalysts for now. Buyers still look poised, but they need to do more before they risk losing near-term control.
Source: Investinglive
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