Gold futures are testing the same technical setup that preceded the June 17 sell-off, with the metal struggling to hold its 50 EMA near $4,393.79 as the US-Iran conflict grinds on. A close below the day's low at $4,372.65 would mirror June's pattern, when gold went on to test $3,977 the following week.
Gold futures are flashing the same warning signs that came before the June 17 sell-off. Gold is trading at $4,393, just below its 50 EMA at $4,393.79, after failing a third attempt on Friday to clear the psychological $4,444 level.
Support levels line up with June's pattern
On the daily chart, gold tested a high of $4,439.60 and a low of $4,372.65, forming a bearish hammer while defending the 50 EMA. A close below that low would keep the trend bearish and open a test of the 200 EMA at $4,296. That pattern echoes June 17, 2026, when gold tested a low of $3,977 the following week after a similar breakdown.
Meanwhile, on the 1-hour chart, gold has pierced its 9 EMA at $4,419 and 20 EMA at $4,402 and is approaching the 200 EMA at $4,385.57. A break there could push the metal toward the 50 EMA at $4,376 and the 100 EMA at $4,357.
Fed rate hike and Iran conflict weigh on sentiment
The setup follows the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since July 2023, with Chair Kevin Warsh stressing a push to bring down price gains despite upward pressure from energy costs. The US-Iran conflict has reached its 203rd day without a peace deal, keeping pressure on markets.
A UN-commissioned panel said Thursday there are "reasonable grounds" to believe the US committed war crimes in two strikes that killed at least 178 civilians in Iran. Separately, President Trump said Thursday he is nearing a decision on whether to launch a major assault on the Iranian regime, ahead of a planned meeting with Persian Gulf leaders next week.
The Pentagon's Inspector General estimated the war had cost $33.4 billion through mid-June, and the Congressional Budget Office said it could add roughly $2 billion more per month. A UK navy agency said a tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz early Friday, with Iran claiming it struck a ship attempting to cross the strait illegally.
Source: Investing.com
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