Gold trades below every major moving average on the daily chart, and each bounce this month has failed within $100 of where it began. The Federal Reserve announces at 2:00 p.m. ET with a quarter-point hike quoted anywhere from 30% to 38%. A bear cross on July 22 has already turned trend-following capital against the metal.
August COMEX gold opened Wednesday at $4,020.90, down 0.4% against Tuesday's settlement, then reversed hard through the pre-market to trade near $4,090 by 8:17 a.m. ET. Yet the structural picture has not moved with the price: gold sits beneath every major average on the daily chart, and the gaps overhead are large.
The average stack sits directly overhead
The 21-day simple moving average is the nearest obstacle. It sits at $4,070.45, with the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages stacked from roughly $4,213 to $4,493. Restoring the long-term trend therefore takes roughly an 11% rally just to touch the 200-day.
Those short- and medium-term averages slope downward, which mechanically means recovery attempts meet supply as they approach — and every bounce this month has failed within $100 of its origin. The confirming bearish event landed on July 22, when the 100-day average closed below the 200-day. Such signals lag by construction, but trend-following capital cuts exposure on the cross regardless of the fundamental picture.
Two weeks of range, then a Fed decision
Gold has now spent two weeks refusing to break in either direction, with the weekly band running roughly $4,000 to $4,110 — a $110 range on an asset that moved $1,600 in the first half of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee announces with the target range at 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged since the December 2025 cut.
Consensus expects a fifth consecutive hold, but futures pricing has been quoted anywhere from 30% to 38% for a quarter-point increase. September carries the real weight, with futures putting a quarter-point hike at that meeting at roughly 80%. There is no Summary of Economic Projections this time, so traders walk in with the vote tally and 45 minutes of press conference as their complete information set.
What the bulls need above $4,157
Momentum is neutral-to-soft rather than stretched. The 14-day relative strength index has been reading between 44.8 and 44.99 — below the neutral 50 line and below its own signal line, which suggests subdued upside momentum but sits well above oversold territory.
Converting the consolidation into a base takes a daily close above $4,157, then a sustained hold above $4,213. Both prices that drive the metal still point the other way. The 10-year inflation-protected Treasury yield reached 2.43% on July 24. The dollar index has been trading near 100.7 after surging to a 13-month high during the June hawkish recalibration.
Nothing below $4,157 alters the structure — it just relocates the range.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
