Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to hold an $80-to-$90 range until Washington and Tehran confirm a nuclear deal or their conflict escalates sharply. Brent traded near $85 a barrel Tuesday as mixed US-Iran signals over the Strait of Hormuz kept traders on edge, even as the bank's own data show physical oil markets tightening. Charts show the contract squeezed in a narrow band, awaiting a breakout.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to hold an $80-to-$90 range until the U.S. and Iran confirm a nuclear deal or their conflict escalates sharply, the bank said Tuesday. It pegs Brent's fair value at about $80 a barrel, suggesting markets are pricing in only a modest risk premium despite ongoing uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies.
Brent traded near $85 a barrel Tuesday as conflicting U.S.-Iran signals over their five-month-old war kept traders on edge. The contract had retreated to the low-to-mid $80s after the U.S. delayed planned strikes on Iran and reports suggested progress on managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though Goldman said physical oil markets keep tightening.
Global visible oil inventories fell by 6.3 million barrels a day over the past two weeks, Goldman said, pointing to reduced flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, lower Russian exports and stronger Asian imports. Gulf oil exports have dropped to about 36% of pre-war levels on a seven-day moving average, down from nearly 80% in early July, while loaded tanker capacity in the Red Sea has fallen 22% since Iran-aligned Houthi forces announced a blockade. Saudi oil exports are down 2.4 million barrels a day from a year earlier, though shipments have increasingly rerouted through Egypt's SUMED pipeline to partly offset the disruption.
Mixed Signals From Washington and Tehran
The uncertainty traces to the weekend, when Trump said a deal with Iran was taking shape and called off planned strikes, pointing to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied the claims and said the strait remains closed.
Unless the two sides confirm further easing, oil prices are likely to drift back higher and accelerate into the weekend on the risk of renewed U.S. military action.
Brent Compresses Between $82 and $89
Brent futures traded at $85.71 on the four-hour chart Tuesday, squeezed between 200 SMA support near $82.30 and resistance from the 20 and 50 SMAs at $86.26 and $89.35. The contract has failed to reclaim its Ichimoku cloud or clear the SuperTrend level at $89.98, leaving the broader structure tilted bearish.
Still, a bullish pin bar at $82.63 and a tentative higher low suggest buyers are trying to make a stand, and the RSI has clawed back from oversold levels.
Bears keep the edge while Brent stays below the SuperTrend level at $89.98, but a clean close above that mark would hand bulls control of the range.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed, Commodities & Futures News
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