Grayscale argues that Federal Reserve policy and U.S. economic growth now matter more than bitcoin's four-year cycle in timing the end of its bear market. If that historic pattern repeats, the decline could run until September or October; if the Fed avoids rate hikes, the bottom may already be in.
Bitcoin's bear market may be closer to its end than historic trading patterns suggest, according to Grayscale, which argues that macroeconomic conditions are becoming more important than the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year cycle. Zach Pandl, the firm's head of research, laid out two competing views on when the downturn could bottom.
The four-year cycle points lower
The first view treats bitcoin's halving schedule as the main driver of its boom-and-bust pattern. Previous bear markets have generally reached their lowest point about one year after a cycle peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving, producing average losses of nearly 80%. On that basis, bitcoin may have further to fall before bottoming in September or October.
Yet Pandl cautioned that leaning on past cycles has grown harder as bitcoin's investor base has changed. He put the bearish case plainly: "The four-year cycle view predicts lower lows for bitcoin's price." Institutional funds, listed investment products and shifting monetary conditions now play a larger role in demand, which Grayscale believes may have weakened the halving cycle's influence.
Fed policy may offer a better signal
Instead, the firm favors a macroeconomic framework that treats bitcoin more like other major asset classes. Past crypto bear markets have often coincided with weaker economic growth or rising real interest rates, and the current slump has unfolded alongside tighter Fed policy expectations and higher inflation-adjusted yields. If those pressures ease, Grayscale says bitcoin could recover without repeating the full drawdowns of earlier cycles.
That outlook depends heavily on the resilience of the U.S. economy. A renewed rise in interest rates or a sharp slowdown in growth could place fresh pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin. Grayscale does not dismiss another decline; it argues instead that investors should look beyond the halving calendar when reading the market.
Bitcoin's supply remains governed by code, but its price is increasingly shaped by the same forces that move stocks and bonds.
Source: Bitcoin News
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