Most Gulf stock markets closed lower as Middle East tensions escalated, even as diplomatic efforts continued. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index, Dubai's DFMGI and Abu Dhabi's ADX all fell while Qatar's QSE index posted a slight gain. Prediction markets still see only a modest chance of crude oil hitting a new record this year.
Most Gulf stock markets closed lower, with Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index, Dubai's DFMGI and Abu Dhabi's ADX general index all declining while Qatar's QSE index bucked the trend with a slight rise, creating a mixed regional market tone. The downturn has been linked to geopolitical tensions, including Houthi attacks and US-Iran relations, which have weighed on investor confidence.
Oil price bets stay muted
The tension is also showing up in prediction markets tied to crude oil prices. Odds of oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 sit at just 0.5%. The probability for December 31 has moved slightly higher, now standing at 12.5%, pointing to a moderate but rising chance of a later-year price surge tied to geopolitical developments.
UAE-Qatar ties still seen as stable
Separately, prediction markets put the odds of the UAE and Qatar severing diplomatic relations in 2026 at 5.5%, a figure that has stayed relatively stable. The pricing suggests the market appears to view the ongoing diplomatic efforts with cautious optimism, despite the backdrop of regional instability.
Traders are tracking US-Iran relations, regional security developments and any OPEC moves as the next catalysts for oil price bets.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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