Gulf oil exporters pushed crude flows above pre-war levels for roughly half of September, led by a Saudi Arabian push to regain market share. But a fresh wave of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz is clouding the outlook for sustained higher exports.
Gulf oil exporters topped pre-war flow levels for about half of September, shipping data showed Monday, even as attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz keep rising.
Exports climb back toward pre-war levels
The seven-day moving average for crude exports from the Middle East reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, provisional data from Kpler showed. Volumes topped pre-war levels on 14 days during the month, with the total covering Gulf crude oil sent through Hormuz, via the Red Sea, and from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Shipments had earlier matched or exceeded pre-war levels on a handful of days in June and July, after a now-lapsed US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Exports from the region averaged about 18 million barrels per day in the 12 months before the war began, according to Kpler.
Saudi Arabia drives the rebound
The recent surge traces to Saudi Arabia loading crude from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, three weeks after a September 10 attack on its East-West pipeline, Kpler said. That has required more supertankers to shuttle crude through Hormuz, trade sources and analysts said, as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have reached their limits.
Shipping data provider Vortexa also reported recovering Gulf flows, with its 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hitting 18.6 million barrels per day, above the 10-year seasonal average. According to Reuters: "ramping up exports to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries", senior market analyst Xavier Tang said of the Saudi push, adding it would also help alleviate tightness in the oil market, especially for Asian refiners.
Tanker attacks keep escalating
However, attacks on tankers continued, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week, shipping intelligence service Marisks said. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on October 1, causing a fire onboard; owner Kuwait Oil Tanker Company did not respond to a request for comment.
The Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was also struck by an unknown projectile on October 4 while transiting near Jazirat Um Al Fayarin, Oman, damaging its engine room. Crews on both vessels were reported safe. Marisks said the pattern may not reflect deliberate targeting of individual ships; instead, it said, Iranian forces appear to be firing into a broad engagement area where weapons could lock onto any radar signature present.
Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Before the war began, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day. That traffic accounted for some 20% of global crude and LNG supply.
Source: Commodities & Futures News
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