Hilbert Group's Russell Thompson says Bitcoin could fall toward $65,000 if key support breaks. He links the risk to forced selling as AI and chip stock losses threaten to force investors to sell crypto to meet margin calls, though he expects some capital to return to digital assets eventually.
Hilbert Group's Russell Thompson has warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $65,000 if key support breaks, as losses in AI and chip stocks threaten to force investors to sell crypto to meet margin calls.
Hilbert's chief investment officer said in comments shared with crypto.news on Nov. 9 that funding concerns around smaller AI and semiconductor companies could bring further losses across investment portfolios. He described "blood in the water" around the AI trade, warning that funds exposed to the sector could face further strain.
Bitcoin's $71,900 support separates two downside scenarios
With Bitcoin trading around $74,200 at the time of his assessment, Thompson identified initial support at $72,800, near the middle of April's breakout range. Moving average support sits around $72,700, followed by a larger trend line near $71,900.
He said losing the trend line would make $65,000 a concern. Against his $74,200 reference price, a move to $71,900 would be a decline of approximately 3.1%, while reaching $65,000 would mean a 12.4% drop.
His caution follows a recovery that failed to hold. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on Nov. 5, but by Nov. 6 it was back near $76,000 after technology-stock losses and $430.2 million in ETF withdrawals.
AI capital could return after forced selling passes
Thompson traces Bitcoin's earlier peak to investors moving money out of crypto and into chips, AI and technology stocks. With those trades now losing capital, he believes digital assets could eventually receive some of the money coming out.
That expectation depends on the current deleveraging ending and markets settling. He has not ruled out a Bitcoin breakout before year-end, even as he expects difficult trading in the immediate period.
Institutional flows remain weak. Thompson estimated Bitcoin ETF withdrawals at $1.2 billion last week. He also said options traders keep paying more for downside protection, putting five-delta put implied volatility at 51, compared with 38 for at-the-money options.
CPI arrives as Thompson sees December hike risk
Thompson said stronger U.S. employment and wage data had pushed the December Fed meeting into play. He cited market pricing of a 77% probability of a rate hike.
Yet he sees a counterweight in inflation expectations, which he described as well anchored. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled October CPI for Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Source: crypto.news
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