Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest weekly count since the Iran war began, maritime security sources say, as Iran's Revolutionary Guards keep up pressure on transiting vessels. Brent crude has held above $100 a barrel for five straight sessions, with fresh escalation in Yemen and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries adding to the supply-risk premium.
Attacks, attempted attacks and harassment of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest weekly level since the Iran war began, according to maritime security sources tracking the incidents. The escalation comes even as Gulf producers push to export more oil.
Attacks cluster in the Strait of Hormuz
In the week of September 28 to October 5, there were at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the strait, three maritime security sources said. That was the highest number of attacks in a single week since the US war with Iran began on February 28.
Separate data from the UN's International Maritime Organization showed nine incidents involving vessels in the same week, though the IMO tends to take longer to verify and officially record incidents. The closest comparable week by IMO data was the week of July 13, when there were eight incidents.
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center said Iran's Revolutionary Guards have kept up drone overflights, surveillance and VHF radio hailing of transiting vessels, describing the activity as a continued effort to assert presence along the strait. India's foreign ministry said 12 crew members were injured after an unknown projectile struck the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace while it passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf oil exporters had topped pre-war export levels for about half of September, shipping data showed. Yet the tanker attacks and logistical constraints now cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows.
Brent holds above $100 as risk premium builds
Brent crude extended its gains on Wednesday, recovering quickly after a spike to $97.07 on Tuesday. New clashes in Yemen, Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries and Iran's threat to close routes it deemed illegal in the strait have all added to volatility.
The contract has held above $100 for a fifth consecutive day, with Tuesday's dip failing to close below that level. Daily momentum studies have improved, with the 14-day reading turning higher and the RSI rising above 50, pointing to a bullish near-term configuration.
A sustained break above the 20-day moving average at $102.43 would support the positive bias further, while a move above $103.95 — October 1's high — is needed to bring buyers fully back into play. The advance is expected to stay biased higher as long as price holds above the 10-day moving average near $100.50.
The price pressure has spread beyond crude: the EU and the International Energy Agency are weighing releases of strategic diesel reserves after diesel prices climbed to record highs in the US and the eurozone.
Sources: Investing.com (Reuters), ActionForex
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