HSBC lowered its gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, pointing to a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger U.S. dollar. The bank now sees gold averaging $4,560 an ounce in 2026, and believes most of the downside is already priced in.
HSBC cut its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864, and trimmed its 2027 figure to $4,925 from $5,000. The bank tied the revision to a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a firmer dollar, which it named as the main drivers behind lower prices and further liquidation of gold holdings.
Where HSBC sees prices heading
The bank expects gold to trade between $3,800 and $4,700 through the rest of 2026, ending the year at $4,750, then reaching $5,025 by the end of 2027. Spot gold sat around $4,100 as of July 9, 2026, more than 20% below its all-time high of $5,594.82 in January, which followed market volatility tied to Middle East conflict.
What still supports the metal
Central bank gold purchases, which previously lifted prices, have moderated, though HSBC said ongoing diversification could still lend support over the long term. Exchange-traded fund outflows were heavy in the first half of the year but may partially reverse in the second half, according to the bank.
HSBC believes most of the downside risk is already reflected in prices, given the market’s adjustment to tighter policy and a stronger dollar. It also noted that structural support — fiscal deficits, economic uncertainty, and sovereign debt — still persists. The ongoing Middle East conflict could push prices lower, but the bank does not expect conflict-driven declines to persist long-term.
Source: The San Joaquin Valley Sun
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