The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil supply forecast again, projecting a drop of 4.3 million barrels per day as the Hormuz standoff drags on. Abu Dhabi's ADNOC is now offering to shuttle Iraqi crude through the strait using its own dark-transit tactics, and Iraq's state oil marketer says exports have climbed even as tanker attacks continue.
IEA deepens its supply-deficit forecast
The IEA said global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East since July push the market deeper into deficit. That is a steeper cut than the 3.7 million bpd drop the agency forecast in July, taking total supply to its lowest 2026 estimate yet, at 102.02 million bpd.
According to the IEA, "an agreement enabling the reopening of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait" remains elusive, which is why it lowered its estimates again for the rest of the year.
ADNOC offers to shuttle Iraqi crude
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is offering to shuttle exports of Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz, using its dark-transit playbook to move Basrah and other crude to refiners in Asia, according to people familiar with the matter. The company has relied on shuttling tactics — short trips, often with transponders switched off, before transferring cargoes to other ships just outside the gulf — to become the most successful producer at getting its crude oil out of the Persian Gulf.
Until now, Vitol Group and TotalEnergies SE have carried most of Iraq's crude, but Adnoc's offers may already be diverting some of that trade. SOMO chief Ali Nizar said Tuesday that Iraq's exports had jumped to around 2 million barrels a day this month, up from a 1.5 million to 1.7 million bpd estimate the country's oil minister gave last week.
Discounts widen as Hormuz talks stall
Iraq's SOMO has been offering discounts of up to $30 a barrel below benchmark prices for cargoes willing to transit Hormuz this month, with its flagship Basrah Medium crude discounted between $25 and $27 a barrel. Meanwhile, the US and Iran have hardened their negotiating stances, though Pakistan's defense minister said Tuesday the two sides were close to some sort of arrangement.
Several Adnoc tankers were attacked while transiting Hormuz last week. Offers of oil by traders other than Adnoc have slowed this month as tensions in the Persian Gulf rose again. An Adnoc spokesperson said the company doesn't comment on commercial matters, and SOMO didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Sources: Investing.com, Rigzone
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