Hitting the EU’s heat pump, solar and wind installation targets could cut the bloc’s gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Tuesday. That saving would match double the LNG the EU could import from Qatar by then. The bloc, however, is still off track on its renewable energy goals.
Meeting its heat pump, solar and wind installation targets could slash the European Union’s gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said on Tuesday. That figure excludes other gas-saving measures, and IEEFA puts it at double the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by 2030.
That estimate rests on the EU’s targets of installing at least 4 million heat pumps, 75 GW of solar and 22 GW of wind capacity installed annually over the next five years. IEEFA, which advocates for an accelerated energy transition, estimates that heat pump deployment and increased solar and wind generation already reduced EU gas demand by 8.8 bcm in 2024, about two-thirds of the bloc’s Qatari LNG imports that year.
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, the research author and lead energy analyst for IEEFA’s Europe team, said that if Europe keeps cutting gas consumption and expanding renewables, “external energy crises may pose less of a threat to the continent’s energy security”.
Renewables share reaches 26.2% against a 42.5% target
Yet the EU remains off track to reach its renewable energy goals. Provisional Eurostat figures published last week put the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption at 26.2% last year, up from 25.2% in 2024.
That leaves a gap. The 2030 target is 42.5%, and closing it would require an annual average increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2026 to 2030 — three times higher than the 2025 annual increase.
Storage heads for its second-lowest level in 15 years
Meanwhile, European natural gas storage is heading for the second-lowest level for this time of year in 15 years and well below the five-year average. The Middle East war hiked LNG prices and intensified competition for supply with Asia, which is currently winning the bidding war for spot supply.
Sources: IEEFA, Oilprice.com
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