Iran's economic planners may include a $130-a-barrel scenario in next year's budget, according to Iranian media. But a U.S. blockade has stranded at least 50 laden Iranian tankers, so higher prices may not help Tehran.
Iran's Plan and Budget Organization may include a $130-a-barrel scenario in the budget for the year starting March 2027, according to Iranian media. Fars News Agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported the possibility.
It is not clear yet what baseline Iranian economists will use. A baseline that high is highly unlikely, because Iran has typically budgeted at very conservative oil price assumptions.
A blockade limits what higher prices can deliver
Regardless of where crude oil prices go next year, Iran may not benefit at all, because the U.S. blockade is crippling its exports. After the collapse of the U.S.-Iran "deal to make a deal," the U.S. Navy reinstated the blockade in mid-July in the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, to force Iran's oil exports to zero and gain leverage in negotiations.
As of early October, the blockade had stranded at least 50 Iranian tankers laden with oil inside the Persian Gulf, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said in a shipping update. Publicly, Iran remains defiant and claims it will find ways to dodge the blockade. Yet vessel-tracking services have estimated that Iran's oil exports have plunged since August.
Floating storage runs dry
Iran's oil in floating storage has also drained. Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, told the Wall Street Journal earlier this month: “There’s no more oil to discharge to China anymore”
Kpler data shows Iran held close to 150 million barrels in floating storage before the United States imposed the blockade on Iranian ports in April. By mid-October, that figure had shrunk to just 866,000 barrels.
Source: Oilprice.com
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