Protests linked to the death of Mahta Zhina Amiri four years ago are still going, and prediction markets now put the odds of an Iranian leadership change by December 31 at 14.5% YES, a modest increase. Security forces have met the demonstrations with a strong response, keeping the country in a tense standoff.
Prediction markets now put the probability of a leadership change in Iran by December 31 at 14.5% YES, a modest increase, according to CryptoBriefing. The pricing tracks protests that began after Mahta Zhina Amiri's death four years ago and have persisted under the "Woman, Life, Freedom" banner, still challenging the country's leadership.
Meanwhile, Iranian security forces have met the demonstrations with a strong response, and the standoff between protesters and the state remains tense. The persistence of the unrest, and the shifts in Iranian society behind it, could add further pressure on the regime.
Next, upcoming protest anniversaries could serve as a signal of that stability. Large-scale turnout and continued international attention may suggest further destabilization, while statements or actions from the Assembly of Experts or the IRGC could show whether the regime's internal support is shifting. Developments involving opposition figures such as Reza Pahlavi could also move how markets price the odds of a leadership change.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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