Iran's top security official says Qatar has passed Tehran's terms for ending its conflict with the United States to Washington. Traders are now watching for a response from President Trump, with prediction-market odds on a 2026 US-Iran deal already ticking higher.
Iran's top security official told Al Jazeera that Qatar has communicated Tehran's terms for ending the conflict with the United States to Washington, a notable step in the ongoing indirect negotiations between the two governments.
The relay follows military action by the U.S. and Israel against Iran earlier this year. A fragile ceasefire has held since, with Doha continuing to mediate between Tehran and Washington, and the disclosure suggests active diplomatic engagement that could shape how markets read the geopolitical risk tied to the conflict.
Prediction markets have already moved on the news. Odds on a 2026 US-Iran deal climbed from 14% to 15.5% following the disclosure, with pricing pointing to reconstruction funding as a possible piece of any eventual agreement.
Attention now shifts to the White House. Trump has not yet responded publicly to Iran's terms, and any statement from him could significantly impact market perceptions and odds tied to a potential deal. Continued back-channel activity through Qatar, along with any shift in Israeli or U.S. policy, may indicate further progress toward a resolution.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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