Iran will stop its own attacks for as long as the United States keeps its bombing pause in place, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off a two-week-old campaign. Tehran reads the halt as tactical rather than genuine, and oil markets are still pricing the escalation that came before it.
Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on airstrikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The message followed Trump abruptly calling off his bombing campaign.
The Pentagon suspended the campaign late on Friday after 13 nights of intensifying U.S. airstrikes, with no U.S. attacks reported on either Saturday or Sunday. Iran, which had been following each night of U.S. attacks with its own strikes on neighbouring countries that host U.S. bases, has also held fire for two days.
Advisers pointed to depleted Patriot stocks
Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News that Trump had decided to pause U.S. attacks to allow more time for diplomacy. According to Reuters: “He’s giving talks some space, he’s giving it a little bit of room” — Waltz said, without providing further details.
The decision also followed what several media outlets described as a meeting on Friday where some of Trump’s most senior military and political advisers raised concerns. CNN and the New York Times said Pentagon Chief of Staff Dan Caine had pointed to the depletion of Patriot air defence missile stocks that U.S. forces rely on to defend bases in the Middle East. Axios reported that Admiral Brad Cooper, the overall commander of U.S. forces in the region, had advised halting the bombing because it had reached the limits of its effectiveness.
Brent crude sits above $100
Washington said the strikes were retaliation for Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran says it aims to retain control of the strait — through which a fifth of global oil flows passed before the war. Anyone trading oil is watching that waterway.
Over the past week, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen announced a blockade on Saudi oil in the Red Sea, potentially shutting a second major chokepoint for energy shipping. That pushed the benchmark Brent crude price above $100 for the first time since May. On Saturday, the Houthis fired on Saudi Red Sea oil targets for the first time in years.
Prediction markets trim the invasion odds
Prediction markets have moved too. Crypto Briefing reported that odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran dropped from 24% to 20.5% over the past day.
Crypto moved on the escalation that preceded the pause. Crypto Briefing reported that Bitcoin slid below $64,000 in the wake of the latest strikes, dragging Ether and altcoins into a liquidation spiral as risk aversion swept through the market.
Tehran, however, expects little from the gesture. The senior Iranian source said there is more scepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks, with the prevailing view that the pause is tactical rather than genuine.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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