The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran is pushing governments toward renewables and efficiency. Carbon Brief expects fossil fuel emissions to fall about 0.5% in 2026, but climate experts say lasting change needs long-term policy.
More than 30 governments have adopted policies to cut fossil fuel use or boost efficiency since the Iran war began, according to the IEA's crisis tracker. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.
The strait normally carries around one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. As a result, countries scrambled to find alternative supplies and turned to wind and solar power. The crisis also led to a slight rise in coal use in some countries.
Emissions are expected to fall
An analysis by the NGO Carbon Brief expects a 0.5% reduction in fossil fuel emissions in 2026. The IEA estimates that peak oil consumption may come this year, rather than in 2029 as previously forecast.
California governor Gavin Newsom commented on the knock-on effects of the war in Iran. During Climate Week in New York, Newsom told reporters: "He's woken the world up to how vulnerable we are to petro-dictatorships"
U.S. policy still points the other way
Trump's domestic changes include cuts to renewable energy funding, weaker air pollution regulations and support for data centres. These will almost certainly increase U.S. carbon emissions, so the source calls the idea of him as an environmentalist almost certainly overstated.
Internationally, however, several governments have been encouraged to diversify their energy mix by accelerating clean energy and battery storage. The source adds that if all the oil and gas exports restricted by the Strait of Hormuz were available elsewhere, governments would likely be less eager to diversify.
Experts warn crisis fixes may not last
Climate experts suggest more must be done, particularly after the United Nations acknowledged that the world will miss the climate pledges set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Researchers at the Climate TRACE emissions database say long-term change requires policies and incentives for clean energy, electric vehicle uptake and energy efficiency.
Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson emphasised that action is needed over years, to decades, to make a dent in the climate problem.
Source: Oilprice.com
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