The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed roughly 25 countries to adopt new electrification policies since March, with several emerging economies now outpacing the United States on clean energy. Grid capacity, not generation, is emerging as the binding constraint on how fast that shift can go.
Since the United States and Israel launched their military offensive against Iran in February, Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting 18 million barrels per day from the global market. The shock has pushed roughly 25 countries to introduce structural electrification policies since March, according to Australia's ABC News.
Emerging markets outpace the US on solar
Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Morocco, Kenya and Namibia have all overtaken the United States in their clean-energy transitions. By the end of 2025, 63% of emerging markets in Africa, Asia and Latin America sourced more power from solar than the United States, according to a Yale 360 report. Pakistan is experiencing one of the fastest clean-energy transitions on record, with what may be the most rapid solar buildout ever.
Energy security, not climate policy alone, is driving the shift. According to David Frykman, General Partner at Norrsken, writing in Fortune: "Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power."
COP31 pledge targets 35% electrification by 2035
The central pledge on the table at COP31, hosted in Türkiye in November, will call on participating states to commit to meeting 35% of global energy demand with electricity by 2035, up from 23% today. Leaders say the goal is within reach if governments fast-track their electrification efforts.
Grid bottlenecks threaten the pace
But the clean-energy boom has run ahead of the infrastructure meant to carry it. The International Energy Agency projects that more than 80 million kilometers of additional or retrofitted grid lines will be needed by 2040, roughly doubling existing grid capacity within fifteen years.
Southeast Asia illustrates the strain. A Bain & Company and Standard Chartered report found that between 50% and 60% of renewable energy projects in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia were canceled or delayed from 2021 to 2025. Oxford energy policy professor Jan Rosenow told ABC News that record renewable and EV growth means the grid must now expand faster, but added that the slower pace of grid buildout does not mean the broader transition is failing.
Source: Oilprice.com
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