Iran's parliament is demanding retaliatory strikes against the United States and Israel after a joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, briefly sending bitcoin below $63,000 and driving record volume on political prediction markets. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is meanwhile pushing Washington toward diplomacy, even as fuel queues lengthen in Tehran.
Iran's parliament is demanding retaliatory strikes against the United States and Israel after a joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at his Tehran compound. Iranian authorities confirmed the death of the 86-year-old leader on March 1, following the February 28 strike that marked the most severe Middle East escalation in decades.
Bitcoin dropped to about $63,000 in the immediate aftermath before clawing back to roughly $68,000. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, vowed punishment against those responsible, calling retaliation "a legitimate right" of the Islamic Republic.
Crypto markets and prediction platforms react
Iranian lawmakers are now amplifying that message, calling explicitly for strikes on both the US and Israel, as military activity continues under an operation dubbed “True Promise IV” alongside ongoing US and Israeli strikes. Meanwhile, outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges surged about 700% to roughly $3 million, signaling urgency among holders already working under years of sanctions.
Polymarket recorded more than $45 million in volume on contracts tied to Khamenei's ouster. Kalshi logged over $20 million in trading volume in a single day after the assassination was confirmed.
If Iran follows through on its threats, particularly against US military assets or Gulf allies, the resulting oil shock could trigger a broader risk-off move that drags down other asset classes, crypto included. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets tends to spike during acute market stress. If Polymarket and Kalshi volumes keep climbing, informed traders may see further escalation as likely.
Diplomacy and fuel queues signal a deepening crisis
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a phone call with President Trump to discuss regional tensions and diplomatic efforts for peace, reportedly emphasizing the need for dialogue to prevent further escalation. Market pricing on a US-Iran meeting by the end of August showed a slight increase in probability after the call.
In Tehran, videos shared by Iran International showed long queues of vehicles at gas stations, as residents braced for fuel shortages amid fears of new US strikes near Tehran and the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets tracking a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade showed a marked drop in confidence in a near-term resolution, including in the short-term sub-markets for August 7 and August 15.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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