Israel's October 27 election left Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc short of a Knesset majority. Oilprice.com argues that either a unity government or a repeat election would favor him, and that this opens a window for a new push against Iran. Meanwhile, Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a U.S. offensive after the November 3 midterms.
Netanyahu's bloc fell eight seats short of a Knesset majority on October 27, winning 53 of 120 seats to 48 for Gadi Eisenkot's camp. The Arab parties took a record 19 seats. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in.
As leader of the largest party, Likud with 27 seats, he is also the most likely recipient of President Herzog's first mandate to form a government. That mandate runs 28 days and can be extended by 14.
Coalition math runs through Liberman
Eisenkot can reach 61 seats only with the Arab parties, and only if Avigdor Liberman's seven seats stay with him. With Liberman, the anti-Netanyahu camp and the Arab slates hold 67 seats, and without him they hold 60. Liberman campaigned on a government limited to Zionist parties, and he now appears to favor an Eisenkot-Netanyahu unity government.
Netanyahu and Likud, however, have spent the days since the vote claiming the election was stolen. Oilprice.com calls this a ploy to block the one coalition that could replace him. In addition, Ben-Gvir wants Arab party leaders arrested and the result annulled.
A window for Iran
Oilprice.com writes that both main outcomes favor Netanyahu. A unity government keeps him in power, while a repeat election early next year would buy him more time to regroup against the opposition. The outlet describes that as the window for another major push against Iran.
Washington, for its part, has told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense U.S. offensive after the November 3 midterms. The buildup is already under way: U.S. forces are restocking munitions in the region, and a Patriot missile defence system is moving from Texas to Israel. A carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit will join about 20 U.S. warships in the Middle East in November.
Source: Oilprice.com
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