JPMorgan cut its Q4 2026 gold forecast by about 25% to $4,500 per ounce, citing weaker demand and greater sensitivity to real interest rates. The bank kept its long-term bullish view intact even as rivals stayed more optimistic.
JPMorgan lowered its fourth-quarter 2026 gold forecast by about 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from a previous projection of around $6,000. The bank now expects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter before rising to $4,500 in the fourth. Weaker demand across several key buying segments drove the revision, though JPMorgan left its longer-term bullish thesis unchanged.
Why the bank turned cautious
Softer purchasing from major gold-consuming markets has cut into upward price momentum, according to the bank, while greater sensitivity to changes in real interest rates has further limited near-term gains. JPMorgan described the current setup as range-bound, suggesting prices are likely to move sideways before a stronger recovery potentially emerges later in the year.
Recent price action fits that picture. Gold touched $4,200 per ounce early this week — its highest level in two weeks — before renewed selling pushed it back to around $4,145. The metal had risen more than 2% in the final week, snapping a four-week losing streak after weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased concerns over persistent inflation and high interest rates.
Rate bets and the technical picture
Traders now see a 56% probability of a US interest rate hike in September, down from over 60% before the data release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower rates typically support gold because it is a non-yielding asset. The daily chart still confirms a bearish bias, with prices trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages despite the recent bounce.
Peers stay more bullish
Other banks remain more optimistic. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold reaching $4,900 per ounce by year-end, supported by sovereign buying and diversification by emerging-market central banks. UBS expects prices to climb to $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Federal Reserve policy. Gold currently trades at about $4,175 per ounce, up 1.26% over the past 24 hours, roughly 26% below its all-time high of nearly $5,600 recorded in January 2026.
JPMorgan still points to central banks accumulating reserves at an elevated pace and physical demand that is expected to strengthen over the coming months, citing two structural factors it sees supporting prices through 2027. Gold and Bitcoin have increasingly traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and 2026, meaning a prolonged range-bound stretch for gold could encourage some institutional capital to shift toward cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Sources: Economy Middle East, DailyForex
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