JPMorgan cut its Q4 2026 gold forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000, citing weaker demand from key buying sectors. The bank still holds a long-term bullish view, pointing to central bank purchases and firm physical demand.
JPMorgan has turned cautious on gold for the short term, cutting its Q4 2026 target by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce from around $6,000. The bank now projects gold averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026 before the metal recovers into the fourth quarter.
Why JPMorgan trimmed the target
The recalibration follows softer demand, as purchasing power has weakened among gold's major buying centers. The metal has also grown more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, which caps the near-term price ceiling.
JPMorgan described the setup as range-bound. Traders should therefore expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold.
Rival banks stay more bullish
Other institutions hold higher targets. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. UBS and Morgan Stanley both eye $5,200, though Morgan Stanley warns gold needs stronger ETF inflows first.
Gold currently trades at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. Yet it sits down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026.
The long-term case still holds
Despite the cut, JPMorgan's medium- to long-term view stays positive. The bank pointed to central banks accumulating reserves at an increased pace and physical demand expected to keep strengthening, both providing a durable floor under prices.
Institutional investors also continue allocating portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging, a pattern the bank sees no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to keep its role as a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The bank's long-term stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon.
Source: BeInCrypto
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