JPMorgan analysts estimate that around $50 billion has flowed into digital assets so far this year, an annualized pace of about $66 billion. ETF flows and futures positions picked up in Q3, pointing to broader retail and institutional participation heading into Q4.
Around $50 billion has flowed into digital assets so far this year, with stronger ETF flows and futures positions creating positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter, JPMorgan analysts said. The current inflows equal an annualized pace of about $66 billion, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report.
That pace is higher than the $52 billion annualized rate recorded in May, but still around half of last year's pace. The analysts expanded their estimate this time to include purchases by private corporate treasuries, private miners, and government-related entities, alongside fund flows, the CME futures impulse, and venture fundraising.
ETF flows turn positive after a rough first half
During the first half of the year, inflows came mainly from Strategy's bitcoin purchases and crypto venture funding, the analysts noted. ETF flows were a headwind over that period, with heavy outflows in May and June, but have improved since August and are now positive for the year. However, cumulative ETF flows remain negative when measured from the crypto market downturn that started on Oct. 10, 2025.
Futures positioning rebuilds toward prior peaks
Institutional positions in bitcoin and ether futures on CME have also increased over the past two months after a slow start to the year. Bitcoin positioning moved above its previous peak, while ether positioning came close to its October 2025 high.
Measures of leverage on offshore perpetual futures, compared with the market value of bitcoin and ether, have fallen from their peaks since the Oct. 10 correction but remain above their historical averages. Trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, have started rebuilding long positions in bitcoin and ether, the analysts' momentum signals show.
Miners keep selling, treasuries diversify funding
Bitcoin miners have been net sellers this year, though total net selling remains modest at around $1.8 billion, mostly from publicly listed miners shifting from accumulating bitcoin toward selling newly mined coins and, in some cases, reducing existing holdings to fund AI infrastructure spending.
Strategy bought bitcoin at a fast pace early in the year and accounted for a large share of total inflows, while private corporate treasuries bought smaller amounts, likely reflecting less flexible funding and a lower tolerance for bitcoin's price swings. Public treasury companies have gradually shifted their funding mix from debt toward preferred shares, increasing their need for interest and dividend payments.
According to the JPMorgan analysts: "creating a positive flow momentum into Q4".
Source: The Block
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