JPMorgan says the odds of the Clarity Act clearing the Senate this year have fallen to 37%, warning that further delay could threaten one of crypto's biggest regulatory catalysts. The warning lands as a major law enforcement group has just endorsed the bill, even though separate prediction-market data puts the odds of President Trump signing it this year at just 30%.
Prediction markets now imply just a 37% chance of the Clarity Act passing the Senate before year-end, JPMorgan said Wednesday, after senators prioritized other legislation ahead of their summer recess. The bank warned that continued delay could cost crypto one of its biggest regulatory catalysts.
Delays risk pushing tokenization toward traditional finance
Negotiations remain deadlocked over ethics provisions, enforcement, DeFi rules, stablecoin yield, and anti-money-laundering requirements, JPMorgan analysts said in the report. JPMorgan analysts put it plainly: "The longer the approval of the Clarity Act is postponed, the greater the threat."
The bill would divide oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That framework is meant to give crypto intermediaries and tokenization projects clearer rules to operate under.
Institutional moves already underway
Some of those trends are already emerging, JPMorgan said, pointing to Citadel Securities' $400 million investment in Crypto.com. The CFTC has also approved the first U.S.-regulated perpetual crypto futures contracts.
Yet the bank's report cautioned that parts of the current draft could deter institutions, since it would let some tokenized securities and derivatives trade outside SEC or CFTC oversight while imposing lighter anti-money-laundering rules than those covering traditional finance firms. Jefferies warned separately last month that the Clarity Act still faces significant hurdles despite clearing the Senate Banking Committee.
Law enforcement group endorses bill as odds keep falling
The Major Cities Chiefs Association, a major law enforcement group, endorsed the latest version of the Clarity Act in a letter to Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren. The letter cited new law-enforcement provisions added to the bill's Sections 10203, 10204, and 10309. Yet the endorsement has not moved the overall odds: prediction-market data shows just a 30% chance that President Trump signs the bill into law this year.
Democrats led by Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and prosecutors continue pushing to remove the provision shielding crypto software developers from prosecution. The Senate has only next week to pass the bill before its August 7 recess.
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