Traders on Kalshi now put the chance of Democrats winning the Senate at 74%, the party's highest odds on the platform. The move follows a New York Times and Siena University poll showing Democrats leading in several battleground states.
Kalshi traders on Monday saw a 74% chance of Democrats winning control of the Senate. That is the highest the party's odds have reached since the market first opened.
The jump comes after a New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats leading in several battleground states. According to CNBC, the contract asks "Who will control the Senate?" and the Library of Congress will verify it after Tuesday's vote.
Republican chances reversed in mid-September
Republicans dominated the Senate market from its opening in 2024. The gap between the parties narrowed shortly after the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
Even so, Republican chances for control rose to 60% in July before reversing in mid-September.
State races move toward Democrats
Individual Senate races shifted as well over the past 24 hours. Kalshi traders now see a 74% chance of Democrats winning the Texas Senate race, up from 68.4%. On Polymarket, the Iowa Senate market jumped to 50% from 42% in favor of Democrats.
In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932, odds of Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton beating Republican Roger Marshall are up to 63% from 52%.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use the methodologies of traditional political polling, so they are not substitutes for political polls.
Source: CNBC
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