Macquarie has cut its Brent crude forecast to $77 per barrel in 2026 and $64 in 2027, pointing to a possible US-Iran deal that could add Iranian supply to the market. Brent, the global benchmark, has recently been in the low-$80s per barrel. Market pricing now points to a decreased likelihood of crude setting a new all-time high by September 30.
Macquarie analysts have highlighted a possible oversupply in the oil market, attributing it to a potential deal between the US and Iran. The bank has adjusted its Brent crude forecast downward to $77 per barrel in 2026 and $64 in 2027, reflecting expectations of increased Middle Eastern oil flows.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, has recently been in the low-$80s per barrel. A potential agreement may release additional Iranian oil into the market, easing supply constraints associated with the Strait of Hormuz and contributing to a surplus.
Such a development could impact the balance of supply and demand for Brent crude, according to Macquarie's analysis.
Meanwhile, pricing across markets now appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30. The prospect of oversupply has therefore led to a recalibration of price forecasts, indicating market adjustments in anticipation of increased oil availability.
From here, market participants will be closely monitoring any developments in the US-Iran negotiations, as a formal agreement could further influence oil price forecasts and market expectations. Key actors such as OPEC and the International Energy Agency may offer insights or policy responses that could affect supply dynamics.
Additionally, geopolitical stability in the Middle East remains a critical factor, as it could either mitigate or exacerbate the anticipated surplus scenario.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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