Oil prices wavered Monday as Brent rose 0.3% to $102.52 a barrel and WTI slipped 0.4% to $90.71, with the G7 moving to release emergency stocks and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces seizing ground near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Middle East crude exports have recovered above pre-war levels even as the region's conflict widens.
Crude oil prices were choppy on Monday as rising Middle East exports and a planned G7 release of emergency stocks eased some supply fears, though geopolitical tension stayed elevated. As of 05:19 ET (09:19 GMT), Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $102.52 a barrel. WTI crude slipped 0.4% to $90.71 a barrel over the same window.
G7 taps emergency reserves
The G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and fuel products from emergency reserves, with a substantial portion of diesel due within 20 days. Governments made the move to cushion energy markets from supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. According to ING analysts: "the growing tightness in the diesel market" is behind the release, and the move has led President Trump to rule out a U.S. diesel export ban, the analysts said.
Middle East exports recover as Yemen fighting widens
Middle East crude exports rose above pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, citing Kpler data. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, above the pre-war average of 18 million bpd. Increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes have helped the recovery, but vessels still face risks exiting the Gulf.
Yet the supply picture remains complicated by spreading violence. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they launched missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais area in response to Saudi-led strikes in Yemen; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the attacks. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, meanwhile, seized large parts of the Dhubab district overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday with heavy air support from a Saudi-led coalition, military and government sources said.
Aramco cuts prices as OPEC+ holds steady
Saudi Aramco unexpectedly cut its November Arab Light price to Asia by $3 a barrel to a discount of $5 to the Oman-Dubai average, the widest discount since June 2020, as it seeks to defend market share amid higher freight costs. OPEC+ agreed to keep November production targets unchanged, with its next meeting set for November 1.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Commodities & Futures News
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