Oil prices swung between marginal gains and losses on Wednesday as the U.S. and Iran each continued to claim control over the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA widened its 2026 demand-decline forecast for the closed chokepoint while OPEC saw a smaller hit, and a separate report pointed to the largest U.S. crude stock build since early 2023.
Oil prices swung between marginal gains and losses on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures down 0.6% to $88.38 a barrel after earlier touching a session high of $90.06. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 0.7% to $82.63 a barrel.
Washington and Tehran both claim control
There appeared to be little progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides continuing to assert control over the waterway and demanding reparations from each other. President Trump wrote on Truth Social, according to Investing.com: "The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz."
Iran's state media said Tuesday the country had reiterated its demands that the U.S. cease hostilities across all fronts and release frozen assets before the strait could be reopened, citing comments from security council chief Mohsen Rezaei. Separately, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said claims by U.S. officials that the strait is no longer blocked do not change the reality that it remains closed.
Kpler data showed a modest rise in confirmed vessel crossings through the strait on Tuesday, but a CNBC analysis of the data found transits averaged around 13 ships a day over a five-day period, the lowest level since mid-May. Houthi rebels reported an attack on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that killed four cargo-ship crew members and two Yemeni rescuers, and the U.S. disabled a Panama-flagged vessel near the Gulf of Oman. Reuters reported the U.S. and Iran have not held talks to extend a prior ceasefire, since Tehran believes the arrangement never had a start date.
IEA and OPEC diverge on the demand hit
The International Energy Agency now expects world oil demand in 2026 to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day, 510,000 barrels per day more than its previous estimate, before rebounding by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027. It also estimated 8.3 million barrels a day of Gulf output remains shut in, with global supply projected to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day on average this year.
OPEC, however, sees a smaller impact: the cartel's latest monthly report forecast global oil demand growing by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 800,000 barrels per day. OPEC also noted refinery operations have gradually recovered as seasonal maintenance eased, though outages remain above historical levels because of disruptions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and elevated maintenance activity in Asia, particularly China.
Crude stockpiles post a surprise build
Away from the strait, U.S. commercial crude stocks recorded their largest weekly build since early 2023, rising by around 17 million barrels, even as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drew down by roughly 6 million barrels, for a net build of about 11 million barrels, InvestingLive reported. Separate tracking data cited by InvestingLive showed vessel transits through Hormuz falling to a one-week low of around eight a day on Tuesday, against a pre-war average of 125 to 140 a day.
Sources: Investing.com, InvestingLive
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
