Brent crude fell 3.8% to $96.89 a barrel as the risk premium built up over weeks of Middle East supply concerns started to unwind. West Texas Intermediate slipped back under $90 on the same day. Yet both benchmarks are still on course for a third straight week of gains.
Brent crude dropped 3.8% to $96.89 per barrel, unwinding part of the surge above $90 that supply concerns over the Strait of Hormuz had triggered. The move points to a rapid retreat of the risk premium that lifted prices in recent weeks. Even so, Brent still trades higher than it did earlier in July.
Prediction markets nudge up the odds of a record
The retreat is feeding into prediction markets that bet on whether oil sets a new all-time high this year. The odds of Brent reaching a record by September 30 stand at 10.2%, up from 7% a day earlier. Further out, the probability of a new high by December 31 has risen to 19%, reflecting shifting sentiment. These swings sit alongside OPEC’s production strategy and global demand, factors traders keep weighing.
WTI comes off the boil
West Texas Intermediate followed the same path. WTI crude fell 3% on the day to drop back under $90, with US-Iran tensions still the main focus. The pullback is drawing price action toward a test of the 100-day moving average. That moving average is a technical level that could shape the next move.
Still, the week remains positive. After gains of more than 14% last week, WTI is poised to close this week over 9% higher — a third straight weekly advance.
Relief spreads to other markets
The softer oil tape is giving other assets room to breathe. Ten-year Treasury yields eased 1.2 basis points to 4.69% as bond yields came off their highs. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and major European indices posted slight gains.
Whether the calm holds is another matter. It would not take much negative headline risk to bring the jitters back.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, investingLive
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