Oil prices held steady Tuesday as rising Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release countered fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Brent settled near $100 a barrel while WTI barely moved, with traders also watching a looming Gulf storm and a possible Russian offensive in Ukraine.
Brent and WTI crude finished Tuesday almost unchanged after clawing back earlier losses, as the market balanced resilient Middle East exports and a Group of Seven plan to release emergency diesel and crude stockpiles against supply risks tied to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The gains were modest: Brent futures rose 26 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $100.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose one cent to settle at $89.44.
Middle East exports ease supply fears
Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products left the Middle East on tankers in the last seven to ten days, the chief executive of commodity trader Vitol said Tuesday. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said oil flowing through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning. According to PVM analyst John Evans, as quoted by CNBC, Brent is "toiling around $100/barrel" for now.
Houthi attacks keep a risk premium alive
Declines have still been limited by the threat of further disruption. Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks Monday evening, injuring three people and causing limited damage, the Saudi aviation authority said. The strikes came as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces pressed a major offensive to retake territory from the Houthis, with Riyadh stepping up airstrikes in support. Separately, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis.
Other risks are stacking up too. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the latest intelligence suggested Russia was preparing a massive attack, and the US National Hurricane Center put the odds of a cyclone forming over the Gulf of Mexico in the next seven days at 100%.
G7 reserve release and a tighter 2026 outlook
Under pressure from President Donald Trump, the G7 economies agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and pledged to avoid new energy export restrictions. The International Energy Agency will meet next week to work out the details of the diesel release, as confusion grows over how many barrels Europe and the US plan to make available.
The US Energy Information Administration projected Tuesday that world petroleum production will drop from a record 106.3 million bpd in 2025 to 101.1 million bpd in 2026, while demand falls from 104.4 million bpd to 102.4 million bpd. It still expects supply and demand to rebound to record highs of 109.6 million bpd and 104.6 million bpd in 2027.
Analysts estimate US crude stocks rose 1.7 million barrels in the week ended October 2, which, if confirmed, would mark the first three-week stock build since August.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News (Investing.com), CNBC
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