OPEC+ has pushed back a review of members' oil production capacity that was due to help set 2027 output quotas, after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East capacity expansion projects. Two sources say the assessment, originally due by the end of September, is now expected to wrap up by mid-November.
OPEC+ has delayed a review of its members' oil production capacity after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted projects meant to expand output across the Middle East, according to two sources close to the matter. The review is meant to help determine members' 2027 oil output quotas.
The group, which combines the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, ordered the capacity review for all members in late 2025, with completion due by the end of September 2026. That deadline has slipped, and one source said the exercise is now expected to be completed by mid-November. OPEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Capacity estimates thrown into flux
The Middle East conflict delayed projects that were meant to lift production capacity in some OPEC+ countries, complicating efforts to estimate how much oil they can pump. Not all members have submitted the data required for the review, and the sources did not name which countries are behind.
The review is meant to give an independent assessment of how much oil each member can produce sustainably, a metric that sits at the center of negotiations over output targets. As a result, delays to planned capacity additions could shift the assumptions behind those assessments and, potentially, the quotas members receive.
Quota tensions already simmering
Countries whose assessed capacity comes in lower could face pressure to accept smaller quotas, while producers that have expanded capacity may push for larger allocations. The United Arab Emirates, which had sought a higher quota to reflect rising production capacity, left OPEC+ in May.
Iraq is also seeking a higher quota and has considered leaving OPEC, according to sources who spoke to Reuters in June.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Commodities & Futures News
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