OPEC+ set to hold November oil quotas steady as Middle East conflict curbs output

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OPEC+ set to hold November oil quotas steady as Middle East conflict curbs output
PrimeXBT Editorial Team
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Major OPEC+ producers plan to leave November production quotas unchanged as the Middle East conflict keeps output curtailed across several of the alliance's Gulf members, Bloomberg reported. A group of seven producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has reached an agreement in principle to hold existing targets, with ministers due to revisit 2027 policy on Nov. 29.

Seven producers agree to hold targets

A group of seven OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has reached an agreement in principle to maintain existing targets next month, delegates said ahead of a video conference Sunday where the decision is expected to be finalized. The move would follow the alliance's existing production roadmap, after OPEC+ previously signaled that further quota increases would be paused through the end of 2026.

Conflict keeps actual supply below target

Oil futures have been moving back towards $100 a barrel amid disruptions from the Iran war, with diesel prices also reaching records at the pump. The supply pressure prompted Group of Seven countries to announce the release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks.

OPEC+ had agreed to a series of modest quota increases during the six months through August, theoretically reversing the production cuts introduced in 2023. But those increases had limited impact on actual global supply, since the war has reduced output across the Persian Gulf. Output from major OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, remains significantly below levels recorded before the conflict — a gap that has also reduced the immediate significance of changes to the group's formal targets.

Idle capacity and 2027 policy next

The alliance's attention is expected to turn next to another layer of production that has remained offline since 2022. Any decision on restoring that supply is likely to be influenced by an ongoing assessment of members' production capacity, which will help determine how future quotas are distributed across the group. OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet Nov. 29 to settle production policy for 2027.

Source: Investing.com

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