OPEC+ is expected to raise its September output target by about 188,000 bpd at its August 2 meeting, holding to a schedule set before Red Sea attacks pushed Brent above $100 a barrel. With Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti production already constrained by the conflict, the paper increase may again fail to reach buyers.
Seven core OPEC+ members look set to add roughly 188,000 barrels a day to their collective quota for September, pressing ahead with a pre-scheduled unwind even as crude oil surged past $100. The group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — is expected to confirm the increase on August 2, matching the hikes already applied for June, July and August.
Prices surge as a second chokepoint closes
Brent crude jumped 7% on Thursday to $100.66, its highest level in nearly two months, after Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed missile and drone strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. West Texas Intermediate rose more than 6% to above $92, trading above $90 for the first time since June. Analysts describe the Red Sea disruption as a second chokepoint alongside the already strained Strait of Hormuz, and Brent has climbed close to 40% this month.
A quota policy detached from the market
Despite the scale of the move, OPEC+ has kept adding to quotas on a near-identical monthly schedule since the conflict began, treating the process as a gradual unwind of earlier voluntary cuts rather than a tool to cool prices. Several of its most important members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, have had export capacity constrained for months, so increases on paper have frequently failed to show up as physical barrels reaching buyers. With Bab el-Mandeb crossings falling sharply and tankers rerouting away from Saudi ports, any September increase risks being similarly symbolic unless shipping conditions improve.
Iran points to sanctions
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, framed the rally as sanctions backfiring. According to Crypto Briefing, he wrote on X that those who set out to penalize Tehran “Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead. 10/10 strategy”. For now, traders are likely to keep their attention on the Red Sea rather than on the mechanics of the August 2 announcement.
Sources: investingLive, Crypto Briefing
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