Polymarket gives Democrats a 62% chance of sweeping Congress in the Nov. 3 midterms, and Kalshi puts the odds at 61%. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate in September, and a Democratic majority could complicate any revival.
Prediction markets now favor a Democratic sweep of Congress, a result that could complicate efforts to revive the CLARITY Act. On Oct. 10, Polymarket's Balance of Power market assigned a 62% probability to Democrats capturing both the House and Senate.
Markets lean Democratic in both chambers
Polymarket's market carried more than $21.2 million in trading volume at press time. A Republican Senate paired with a Democratic House stood at 30%, and a Republican sweep at 9%.
Kalshi's market showed a similar picture: a 61% chance of a Democratic sweep, 29% for a Democratic House and Republican Senate, and 11% for a Republican sweep. Its contracts had approximately $35.87 million traded.
In the chamber-level markets, Polymarket gives Democrats a 91% chance of controlling the House. The Senate looks tighter, with Kalshi's Senate market, which has attracted $57.3 million in volume, putting Democrats at 61% and Republicans at 39%.
The CLARITY Act stalled after a failed Senate vote
The House approved the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. Under the bill, qualifying digital commodities would fall primarily under CFTC supervision, while the SEC would keep authority over securities-related activities.
The Senate then rejected a procedural motion on Sept. 15, 2026, by a 49-50 vote, falling 11 votes short of the required 60. Republicans had incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats, and every Democrat present opposed advancing the measure, joined by four Republicans.
Disagreements centered on ethics restrictions involving federal officials' cryptocurrency holdings, illicit-finance safeguards, developer liability and stablecoin rewards competing with bank deposits. Any successor would need fresh consideration when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027, potentially under Democratic leadership.
Limits of the forecast
A Democratic takeover wouldn't outlaw cryptocurrency or automatically reverse existing regulations. Trump would also remain president, and legislation would still require his signature or sufficient support to override a veto.
The odds also reflect contract prices, not certain election outcomes, and political developments could change the numbers considerably before Nov. 3.
Source: Bitcoin News
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