Polymarket traders are pricing a 65% chance that XRP falls below $1, even as the token holds a consolidation near that level after chopping around $1 for nearly two months. The bet comes as XRP's exchange rate against Ethereum keeps weakening and leverage in XRP derivatives climbs back toward the mid-July level that preceded a liquidity sweep.
Traders on Polymarket now put 65% odds on XRP dropping below $1 in the near term. The wager lands as XRP holds a quiet pattern: the token closed July at $1.06 and has stayed near that level through the first days of August, a stretch of consolidation that has historically preceded bullish rebounds.
XRP's slide against Ether deepens
But XRP's edge against Ethereum is fading. The XRP/ETH ratio has dropped almost 5% this month. That extends a slide that erased more than 13% of the ratio's value in July — the ratio's worst monthly loss so far this year.
Ethereum closed July up more than 18%. XRP, by contrast, added just 2.18% over the same month. That gap leaves Ethereum's monthly return running roughly ten times ahead of XRP.
With bitcoin still hovering near resistance, rotational flows into the stronger performer look more likely in the weeks ahead.
Leverage rebuilds toward its pre-selloff level
Open interest in XRP has climbed back to $2.5 billion, matching the level last seen in mid-July, according to CoinGlass data. Back then, bulls failed to defend $1.15, triggering a liquidity sweep.
XRP dropped to $1.03 in early August as that sweep played out. Open interest itself fell to $2.36 billion over the same stretch. With leverage building back up now, pressure on the $1 support is mounting, and another sharp liquidity sweep could follow if bulls fail to hold it a second time.
As one analyst noted, XRP's deflationary tokenomics remain among its stronger fundamentals versus major layer-1 tokens. Over the past 206 days, XRP's total supply has fallen from 99,985,726,061 to 99,985,630,555 tokens. That works out to roughly 95,506 XRP burned, or about 463 XRP per day.
Meanwhile, XRP Ledger's 7-day average active addresses are up 8.1% this week, averaging 15.2k daily.
XRP isn't fully bullish yet. Without fresh buying pressure, another liquidity sweep like July's remains possible, keeping Polymarket's odds of a drop below $1 in focus.
Source: AMBCrypto
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