Prediction-market pricing now puts Mojtaba Khamenei, son of assassinated Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, at an 84.9% probability of leading Iran by year's end. The same markets price an Iranian regime collapse by the end of 2026 at just 6.5%, down from 8% a day earlier, amid ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel.
Markets are pricing an 84.9% probability that Mojtaba Khamenei assumes leadership of Iran by the end of the year, according to data from @OfficialApeXdex. The pricing follows the assassination of Ali Khamenei earlier this year, amid ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel.
Traders have also cut the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing by the end of 2026 to 6.5%, down from 8% the previous day. That shift reflects a perceived stabilization tied to Mojtaba Khamenei's potential leadership. Meanwhile, the broader geopolitical situation remains tense, with a fragile ceasefire in place despite intermittent hostilities.
Any defections within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would likely shift these odds further, as would a breakdown of the current ceasefire. Significant political movements inside Iran could also change how markets weigh succession and regime stability.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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